Global Logistics Uncertainty to Persist in 2026

Global logistics will continue to face persistent uncertainty in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, trade policies, excess capacity, and stricter AI compliance requirements. Following the recovery of the Red Sea route, capacity on the Asia-Europe trade lane has been released in large volumes, and European ports will need 3 to 6 months to ease congestion. Meanwhile, pressure from excess capacity may extend into 2028. Factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East could still disrupt key shipping lanes, forcing enterprises to constantly adjust transportation plans. The "deglobalization" policies promoted by the U.S. and other countries have accelerated the trend of supply chain nearshoring and friendshoring. Frequent changes in tariffs and export control rules have driven up compliance costs and risks, with 41% of supply chain leaders citing geopolitical instability as their primary challenge.
Excess Capacity and Market Volatility
In the container shipping industry, the orderbook accounts for 35% of the existing fleet (approximately 11.4 million TEU). The average annual overcapacity rate is projected to reach 23% between 2026 and 2030, peaking at nearly 30% in 2029, putting significant downward pressure on freight rates. The U.S. West Coast route saw a monthly freight rate drop of 32%, and the U.S. East Coast route fell by 21%. Companies have advanced inventory stocking to hedge risks, leading to short-term demand being overdrawn. Industry giants are dynamically adjusting capacity and cost structures; Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and others have launched vessel reduction, slow-steaming, and cost-cutting programs.
High Compliance and Operating Costs
Regulations including the EU EPR, U.S. tariff policies, and localized compliance requirements in Southeast Asia continue to evolve, alongside expanded export controls and sanctions. Enterprises must allocate more resources to meet certification, declaration, and traceability obligations. Labor shortages, volatile energy prices, and upgraded green logistics standards have further raised fulfillment costs and compressed profit margins.
Growing Pains in Technological and Model Transformation
Uneven adoption of AI, automation, and other technologies has left small and medium-sized logistics firms lagging in digital transformation, making it difficult to respond quickly to orders and risks. The acceleration of nearshoring and omnichannel fulfillment has made overseas warehouse deployment and forward stocking essential, requiring a restructuring of traditional logistics networks.
Dynamic Capacity Adjustment
Kuehne+Nagel, DSV, and others adjust shipping routes and capacity based on quarterly demand fluctuations, optimizing or suspending low-margin lanes. Maersk has adopted slow steaming, charter termination, and ship scrapping to alleviate excess capacity pressure.
Multi-Channel Redundancy
DHL, C.H. Robinson, and other providers have built networks of "main lanes + feeder lines + alternative routes". For example, the China-Europe Railway Express complements ocean freight, allowing quick shifts to routes such as the Cape of Good Hope when the Red Sea lane is disrupted.
Nearshore Deployment
Companies are accelerating the construction of overseas warehouses in core markets including the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia to shorten fulfillment times, reduce cross-border transportation risks, and align with diversified sourcing strategies such as "China + ASEAN".
Policy Monitoring and Contingency Planning
Kuehne+Nagel has established a global trade policy database that updates tariffs, sanctions, and certification requirements in real time, developing response plans 3–6 months in advance to avoid compliance penalties.
Supplier and Commodity Compliance Screening
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and others require sellers to provide certifications such as CE and EPR, implementing strict access controls for high-risk categories. Non-compliant goods are directly removed with accountability pursued.
Insurance and Cost Hedging
Freight derivatives, supply chain insurance, and other tools are used to hedge against freight rate volatility and geopolitical risks, stabilizing cost expectations.
AI Forecasting and Visualization
DHL, C.H. Robinson, and others use AI algorithms to forecast port congestion, freight rate trends, and demand fluctuations, improving inventory and capacity allocation efficiency while reducing empty mileage.
Automation for Cost Reduction
Hapag-Lloyd is modernizing its fleet to lower fuel consumption; DSV is optimizing empty container handling processes; Maersk is deploying unmanned warehouses and intelligent sorting systems, with an annual cost-reduction target of hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars.
Collaborative Decision-Making
Collaborative platforms integrating "human + AI + systems" enable rapid responses to orders, complaints, and sudden risks. DHL’s global operations command center, for instance, supports 24/7 real-time dispatch.
Multi-Warehouse Inventory Planning
Inventory is distributed across overseas warehouses and regional hubs in core markets to avoid stockouts or overstocking at single locations. DSV recommends that companies stock up in advance to address risks in the first half of the year while controlling inventory turnover days.
Multi-Modal Fulfillment
Combined delivery via air, ocean, and overland transport is supported — for example, ocean freight for heavy cargo and air freight for urgent orders — flexibly matching time and cost requirements.
After-Sales and Reverse Logistics Optimization
A system for fast refunds and local returns and exchanges is established to improve customer satisfaction and lower reverse logistics costs, complying with after-sales requirements of platforms including TikTok Shop and Shein.