2025 STATE OF FREIGHT

North America is the only global region to experience a decline in container volumes during the 2025 trade war period, and after massive frontloading of inventory early in the year, logistics experts say there is little freight left to move into the country.

As Chinese exports to the U.S. slump, furniture, toys and sporting equipment, electrical devices and components, machinery, and plastic and plastic products are among the top categories of decline.

Imports from China have faced three straight weeks of 27% year-over-year declines, according to data from Vizion, and the latest ocean freight bookings data shows that a traditional rush of freight containers into the country in late September is not likely to materialize.

“Normally, we would expect a peak starting from the last week of September ahead of Golden Week,” said Catherine Chien, chairwoman of global shipping and logistics company Dimerco Express Group. Golden Week is a major holiday week in China during which many businesses are closed. “So far, there are no clear signs or major orders in the market indicating this trend,” she said.

The top five product segments contributing to the reduction in Chinese exports to the U.S., according to data analysis by Vizion, are furniture, toys and sporting equipment, electrical devices and components, machinery, and plastic and plastic products.

The toys category is a good example of what logistics professionals describe as a flatlining of trade between the U.S. and China.

“Toys and sporting equipment are on trend with 2024, but in the most recent 10 weeks after the peak, it has trended flat at an average of 20% less volume compared to last year’s peak season,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion.

There are some exceptions to the overall trend, such as rubber and organic chemicals, that match or slightly exceed 2024 booking activity volume since May, a month when the frontloading of inventory caused a freight container volume spike as President Trump offered short-term extensions of effective dates for tariffs first announced in April.